Communicating probabilities of natural hazards

Probabilities are often used to express the likelihood of the occurrence of natural hazards. But, using probability to communicate about natural hazards is complicated as they often imply different things to different people. For example, the message “there is a 30% chance of rain in Wellington in the evening” maybe interpreted as there is a chance that it will rain 30% time of the evening, or it will rain over 30% area in Wellington or something else altogether. In this project, we are examining how probabilities can be communicated to diverse audience without causing confusion. To do this, we are looking at existing studies in different disciplines on various presentation formats and consolidating the key findings. We expect the outcome of this research will serve as a useful guide for researchers, science communicators, and anyone communicating natural hazards likelihood.